Copper Prices Rebound

Copper futures rebounded to above $5.85 per pound in Monday’s session, as a sharp pullback in the U.S. dollar, together with dip-buying activity from metal fabricators in China, helped the market absorb the initial geopolitical shock.

The upward momentum in copper prices was reinforced as the U.S. Dollar Index retreated from its recent peak levels. When the dollar weakens, metals priced in the greenback become more attractive to international buyers, thereby supporting market demand.

In China, spot premiums have risen for a fifth consecutive session. The increase was driven by the previous price decline—when copper prices fell below 100,000 yuan per ton—which triggered a wave of procurement from downstream enterprises, particularly in the construction and renewable energy sectors.

Market participants have also been paying close attention to mounting pressure in the midstream segment of the supply chain. Annual treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) for copper were reported to have dropped to $0 per ton in 2026, signaling a severe global shortage of copper concentrate that could impact refined copper output.

Although inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remain at record-high levels and have partially capped the price rally, the narrative of long-term structural supply deficits—linked to demand from AI data centers and rising defense spending—continues to be viewed as a key factor underpinning the outlook for the red metal.